langleywatchdog…. and more!

The Truth Explained – Langley SkyTrain cost is $7 Billion (not $6 Billion) …. Up 74% since their March 2024 projection – How did all of this happen?

The story of how this happened? (You can’t write this stuff as they say, but I will try) The multi-billion-dollar decision to put SkyTrain into Langley was made thanks to the efforts of Doug McCallum, Mayor of Surrey in the first Mayors TransLink Council meeting, post his 2018 election. Mayor McCallum attended the meeting with pre-arranged voter support in place for his motion to scrap the Diane Watts approved $1.6 Billion light rail transit (Guildford, down 104^th to King George Blvd South to Newton), in favor of SkyTrain to Langley City. McCallum was emphatic, they could build SkyTrain to Langley City for $1.65 Billion and not a penny more! This, was all thanks to the weighted vote from Surrey and Vancouver at the Mayors TransLink Council.

You see, the 2018 election saw the election of a number of new Mayors attending their first TransLink Mayors Council meeting with no knowledge of the weighted vote; and they were blindsided. A vote was held, and thanks to this set up, provisional support was given for this initiative. TransLink staff then proceeded to build a justification for this change, and shockingly in a relatively short space of time (obviously with a clear lack of due diligence in terms of cost investigation and projections) they were successful in selling this bill of goods to the Mayors TransLink Council – it received final approval. This was just the start of the TransLink incompetence on this file that has put all of us in the situation we are in today. It is scary how major decisions involving Billions of dollars are made, on your behalf. But then it got progressively worse!

Within a couple of years, TransLink went to the province for financial help, again, crying poverty. (TransLink owns their own financial destiny due to dumb and very expensive past decisions.) So, compounding this self-inflicted problem TransLink found themselves in, Premier John Horgan, leading up to a provincial election, without any detailed due diligence in terms of cost projections, announced that the province would take over the Langley SkyTrain project! This was a Political Decision – nothing more. Not one that was costed out, analyzed in detail, or justified by any form of Transit Business Plan! The estimated cost of the Langley SkyTrain project has gone from $1.6 Billion to $2.1 Billion, to $3.2 Billion to $3.95 Billion, to $4 Billion, and now $7 Billion!

Why $7 Billion and not $6 Billion – because this extension required a major new operations and maintenance center in North Cloverdale costing a further $1 Billion. In what is a further very questionable development, on Dec. 11^th, 2023 a Cabinet-Order-in-Council was signed (by Surrey Green Timbers MLA Rachna Singh) taking out a nearly 37-acre parcel of land (176^th & Fraser Highway) out of the Agricultural Land Reserve. The land was valued at $5.65 Million and was sold for $8.052 Million last November? Really? Who sold the land at that inflated price?

All of this plus a further year of delay to get to 2030. Here is my bet going forward, if the full extension is built, and that is a big if – it won’t be finished before 2032 and will cost north of $10 Billion.

So, to the announcement of this week, buried within a flowery press release about SkyTrain coming to Langley, almost like an after-thought was information regarding the exploding budget. All of this with disingenuous explanations from Minister Fleming as to the reasons for it?

In outlining his excuses for the cost increases and delays the reality is, it falls back on the provincial government’s incompetence and lack of due diligence in their takeover and planning of this project. One primary reason that hasn’t been touched on in the public discourse is the issue of the Serpentine Flats. To reach Langley City you have to go through roughly 2 ½ kms of the Serpentine Flats (Area of Fry’s Corner 176^th and Fraser Hwy). If you talk to those that have had experience in drilling wells in this area for years’ they will tell you that you have to go down 400 ft. or more to find bed rock that could hold up and withstand the vast weight of an elevated cement guideway. A guideway requires absolutely no movement to maintain proper and efficient operation for linear induction motors.

You can build anything if you pour enough money into it. In our research and after FOI requests we conclude they had not done any comprehensive geotechnical surveys in this area prior to any published cost estimates. A sign of total incompetence!

TransLink is Bankrupt! – I was a member of the Mayors TransLink Council 2008 – 2011 and I can tell you we had serious financial issues back then. The issues of declining gas tax revenue and fare evasion were serious issues at that time. What we have never heard of is any attempt by the TransLink Mayors Council or Board of Directors to do any kind of internal productivity audit on service and internal operations, this is unfortunately consistent with most if not all of our publicly funded institutions like Metro Vancouver. The B.C. Conservative Party has just announced they would initiate a performance audit of TransLink should they be elected. Is the public getting value for their tax dollar, NOT! It seems SkyTrain has become a demanded service by the public in every part of the region, however TransLink and the B.C. Government have not communicated the unsustainable costs for this mode of transit. This is a big reason for TransLink’s serious financial dilemma, constantly going to senior levels of government to cover operational costs to cover their past incompetence.

Think of this number; Based on the current published cost estimates for the Langley SkyTrain, 16 KMs at $7 Billion = $437,500,000 per km! – Pure insanity!

TransLink’s most recent public statement says they will be short $600 million per year by 2026 or they will have to start drastically cutting the transit service they provide. I will point out that the operational cost and TransLink’s share of the capital cost of the Langley SkyTrain project is not included in the above shortfall. Throughout my term I banged the table for the recognition of transit need in the Township of Langley, and I hate to say with very little improvement. I know Mayor Woodward is doing the same but is faced with the same frustration. We have just come through a dark decade with Jack Froese as Mayor and I might add as vice-chair of the Mayors TransLink Council – he was no more successful other than supporting the approval of SkyTrain to Langley City – We now see the disastrous results of that shortsighted initiative.

The Hidden Cost of TransLink? – We often hear TransLink cry the blues about the declining gas tax revenue as well as fare gate revenue – have you ever tried to find out the revenue they receive from each revenue source? You can’t, it isn’t available. The following are their category sources of revenue from every member municipality and city in Metro Vancouver:

Parking Tax – Now 24% (adds 15 cents hr. to aver. $5/hr. per parking stall

Property Tax – 7% (increase per yr. of the TransLink Property Tax base per yr.)

Gas Tax – 18.5 cents a litre (highest gas taxes in North America)

Transit user fees – Single use +5 cents to 10 cents/Day Pass +25 cents/monthly passes +$2 – $3.

B.C. Hydro Transit Levy – Regular Single-Family dwelling 1.87 month – Last year $21,585,432 Yr.

Development Cost Charges – Sing. Fam. $2,975 unit, Townhouse $2,470 unit, Apartment $1,545 unit, Retail Service $1.25 sq. ft., Office $1.25 sq. ft., Institutional .50 sq. ft., Industrial .30 sq. ft.

NOTE – The B.C. Government allowed the imposition of TransLink DCC costs – and they are blaming others for housing affordability?

There is a very cost-effective Transit option for South of the Fraser – There is a BETTER CHOICE?

In a Global interview on Thursday August 15^th, Minister Rob Fleming stated they had three choices 1) Stay the course despite cost 2) Pare down the size of the project or 3) Cancel it! Well Minister Fleming, we strongly suggest that you had a 4^th, and very good choice – Reactivate the existing Interurban which could be done within 3 years, it would serve 10 times the population with more reach, value and economic impact than SkyTrain. The cost to reactivate the Interurban would be roughly 4.2% of the cost per km of SkyTrain and 4.4% of the cost per capita of SkyTrain. Despite our complete cooperation with the provincial government, including providing volumes of information, paying for meeting time and space at their request ($1,000), we have been denied a meaningful one-hour meeting with Minister Fleming – 1 year trying!

The South Fraser Community Rail Society (SFCRS) has campaigned for the reactivation of the Interurban Corridor with state-of-the-art Hydrail Passenger Rail Service between the Pattullo Bridge and the City of Chilliwack for the past 7 years. This 99 km corridor is owned by the public with protected passenger rights, with use at no cost. It is an existing and operating rail corridor, the majority by a small line rail road. As part of the renewed Master Agreement, the sale of freight rights through the joint section (The Langleys), CP agree to pay for any double tracking should it be required and that freight and passenger traffic would be given equal use, among a number of other stipulations.

The facts are that this corridor connects 16 Population Centers (14 stops – Pattullo Bridge, Kennedy Heights N. Delta, Newton, Sullivan Station, Cloverdale, Langley City / TOL, Trinity TOL, Gloucester TOL, Abbotsford Old Town, Abbotsford Sumas Way, Huntington, Yarrow, Sardis, and Chilliwack) – 14 Post-Secondary Institutions, Industrial Parks, Abbotsford International Airport via a Spine (Rail Line) and Rib (Bus) Transit system in the same way that SkyTrain serves Metro Vancouver. Because of the large tracks of ALR land in the Fraser Valley this corridor goes through the ALR and connects developable land within each of these population centers up and down the valley. Today, over 75% of trips starting South of the Fraser end South of the Fraser (the opposite to what it was in 2005) but their desired destination is not served by the current Express Bus which, as an aside, is tied up in the Highway #1 congestion that we are fighting every day. There currently is no Interregional Transit South of the Fraser and there won’t be for 11 years at the earliest!  

This campaign to reactivate goes back a couple of decades, significantly ramping up over the past 7 years. Over this period of time the SFCRS has made over 500 in-person presentations, produced an 88 page “Community Business Plan”, considered a major stake holder by the B.C. Government and lobbied successfully for the Fraser Valley Regional Rail Pre-Feasibility Study published July 8^th 2022.

Support for this initiative include the following –

• All South of Fraser Cities and Municipalities by resolution 2009
• 88% overall Public Support in a Mario Canseco ResearchCo Poll – North Delta to Chilliwack
• John Horgan – UBCM Meeting in Whistler September 2022
• All Post Secondary Institutions – Members of the Municipal Community Rail Task Force
• University of the Fraser Valley Transportation Demand Management Strategy
• Township of Langley UBCM Resolution 2023
• Lower Mainland Local Government Association (LMLGA unanimous support)
• Surrey Board of Trade
• Fleetwood Business Improvement Association
• Hydrogen B.C. / Canadian Hydrogen Fuel Cell Association
• B.C. Indigenous Housing Society
• Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives
• B.C. Government Fraser Valley Regional Rail Pre-Feasibility Study

Summary – So, the Highway #1 widening won’t be done until the 30s, and Skytrain won’t be done until the 30s if it ever gets done. Both projects are way over their proposed budget even before the projects get started. A reactivated 99 km Interregional Interurban passenger rail service could be operational at a fraction of the cost (pennies on the dollar) compared to SkyTrain as previously stated. All that is needed are road crossing gates at all road crossings (They are already in place in a number of locations), 14 European style Passenger Platforms (Not expensive SkyTrain Stations) in strategic locations between North Delta and Chilliwack. The track and track beds are maintained to national standards. The average speed would be between 60 and 80 KM per hour with an estimated 90-minute trip between Chilliwack and the Pattullo Bridge.

This service could be operational within 2 ½ – 3 years. What are the good people in the valley supposed to do, wait until 2034 before they can get a tiny bit of help to move around? Using provincial government traffic numbers just east of 200^th street, traffic is increasing at a rate of 20% per year. With the reality of Highway 1 widening just to Abbotsford not scheduled to finish until 2035 (a real date not a political dream) at best, what is the exponentially growing population of the Fraser Valley going to do? Tram Train Passenger Rail is the popular form of transit in virtually every part of the world including right here in Canada – Alberta, Ontario and Quebec. It is long past time we invested in affordable, convenient and effective public transit.

For full detail on this proposal check out the following links –

Web site www.southfrasercommunityrail.ca View 4-minute video on this site.

Facebook https://www.facebook.com/connectthevalley

You Tube Channel – https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCCZxkXqvEP0EnV-CCK-LMaw

It is Time for Change – David Eby is a drastic change from John Horgan and it is not a good change. The NDP’s incompetence is showing in spades with their inability to manage and control major infrastructure projects, their imposition of their Social Engineering philosophy including the overbearing imposition of their housing policy on municipalities (without discussion and conversation) removing their ability to plan and listen to their communities, their legalized drug policy and the out-of-control crime problem. In short, they over their heads in their ability to effectively govern, we need change now!

RG

Protect your Democratic Rights – Protect your NEIGHBORS Democratic Rights – stay informed, stay involved and VOTE!!!

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